In a slow industry like IVD, layout is more important than seeking explosions.

During this period of time, when I was chatting with many friends, I often talked about such a question, that is,

Which product do you think will explode?

I tend to answer

I don't know

Then naturally everyone will be teased.

However, I do think that in a slow industry like IVD, discussing explosions is a meaningless thing and even hurts the company.

For the IVD industry, of course, it can also be said that for the entire medical industry, it belongs to the category of slow industry. What isSlow industry? It just refers to the pace of my new product launch, it's not going to get up fast. In an industry like clothing, it may set the version on the same day and produce the finished product the next day, which can be shipped in batches within a week. But for us IVD industry, this kind of rhythm is impossible,Heavy regulationIndustry, is the need for registration, clinical and registration to market.

If we are optimistic and estimate that the registration inspection time will be three months, the clinical time will be six months, and the registration time will be nine months, then the total will also need at least 18 months, that is, regardless of the product research and development work, after the product is formed, It will also take at least one and a half years to officially go on the market. If we give a product half a year of research and development time--This R & D strength is bursting-Then it will take two years from the establishment of the product to the listing.

This also means that if the boss sees a listed product selling well and decides to go on the project, it will be two years after his own project goes on sale-this is still under the condition that everything goes well.

Two years, who can predict what will happen in two years?I'm afraid no one can make such a prediction, and even those bosses who dare to pat their chests to make sure they are still in the company two years later, they have to say two things.

It is easy to predict what to eat tomorrow, but it is not easy to predict what to eat today after two years.

With the extreme popularity of the new crown, the industry is trying to find the next new crown project, the word explosion has been repeatedly mentioned, everyone wants to find the next new crown product, but my view is,

It's not realistic

Because the IVD industry is arely on the sky to eatThe industry, the sales of a single project and the epidemic situation of the year directly linked, to now sell particularly good A/B flow testing reagents, for example, in the three years of the new crown, A and B flow testing reagents sold very poorly, even in the 18 years and 19 years before the new crown, A and B flow testing reagents sales are not good, but by the time of 23 years, sales rose sharply.

Therefore, the sales volume of IVD reagent itself is closely linked to the incidence of the disease, and if we superimpose the two-year window period we talked about before, how to predict the prevalence of the disease after two years? I'm afraid no one can do it.

Moreover, I think that explosive thinking will cause immeasurable damage to the company. Why?

Because decisions also have costs

If you are making a product project, for each project, you have to consider whether it can become an explosion, then the cost of the product project, I am afraid it will fly into the sky, and when making decisions, it is particularly easy to ignore a cost is

Time cost

For decision-making, sometimes, the cost of time is the most expensive cost, after all, human and financial costs can also be solved by enriching resources, and time is not, it is over. This is obvious in the new crown performance, if the new crown has just begun, to come up with clear evidence to prove that the new crown will be a burst of money, I'm afraid no one can do it, but if you miss that opportunity, later to kill the entry, the difficulty has been raised several levels do not say, can make money, all have to make a question mark. In fact, after the end of the new crown epidemic last year, we can still see some manufacturers declare the new crown testing reagents approved, or withdraw the application, but the feast has passed, the prosperity is not.

In the absence of an accurate prediction of the future,

The pursuit of explosions will only make themselves step by step behind

The leader eats meat, the laggards drink soup, and the last to enter, there are only some leftovers left.

Since the explosive thinking is not desirable, then for IVD manufacturers, what should be done.

Take Jiuan Medical, which made a lot of money during the new crown epidemic, for example, when was the subsidiary iHealth, which made a huge fortune for it, set up? In 2010, nine years before the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, it can't be said that Jiuan was able to predict that nine years later, the new crown colloidal gold would sell, so the establishment of iHealth this U.S. subsidiary, right?

The principle of living long falls into our IVD products, that is, there should be enough menus, so no matter which product demand breaks out, it can make money! But for the demand to increase the number of menus, the most important point is-cost.

The cost of my certificate is lower than yours, and the cost of holding a certificate is lower than yours, so it is easier for me to wait until the spring is warm and blooming.

In 《The customer who talks about the 'disappearance' will be even more difficult for the accompanying diagnostic genetic testing manufacturers in 2024."In the article, why do I object to obtaining certificates with diagnostic genetic tests? This is the reason, because the cost of tens of millions of certificates is too high, which will lead to unrealistic expectations for the market of this product-with such a large investment, we must return to the original cost-in the process of marketing, it is easy to deform, and there will be non-compliance and even illegal things, this will be a huge hidden danger.

In fact, if we look at the top manufacturers in the current chemiluminescence market, Antu, New Industry and Yahuilong, without exception, when the cost of early reporting was very low, they obtained many registration certificates and a complete menu, which provided great help and moat for these enterprises to fight in the chemiluminescence market. And which of these products will be explosive?

I don't know

In 《Miscellaneous: Take HPV as an example, talk about technology-driven IVD enterprises, how to start small in product development, big focus.In the article, I gave an example of how to make a broad layout from a technical point of view, and interested readers can also move to watch it.

At the end of this article, I seem to have missed an explosive product-colorectal cancer early screening. This product is certainly a hit, but it is a project that has already been proven in global markets other than China-the United States, Europe, Japan and even Africa. In terms of medical care, there is no particularly big difference between Chinese and foreign people-otherwise, foreign products cannot be used in China-so the possibility of successful foreign projects is very small.

A project that has been proven abroad but is blank in the domestic market does not need to discuss whether it has the possibility of success, but should be re-engraved. After all, those Internet companies, and even domestic Android phone manufacturers, are not all like this.?

We have to wait until the situation is clear before we start reporting the certificate. Is this not the case?The explosive thinking of seeking stabilityWhat about the drag?